Ripple (XRP) has been fluctuating around the $1.30 mark, with data showing that the price gap between the spot market and the perpetual futures market is not significant. While accounts betting on the buy side dominate the futures market, the funding rate remains negative, making it difficult to conclude that a short-term upward trend is underway.

■ Spot and Futures Prices in Close Range... No Clear Premium

According to XRPUSDT prices confirmed on the 18th, Ripple's spot price stood at $1.2962, down approximately 1.11% over the past 24 hours. During the same period, the high was $1.3126 and the low was $1.2701.

The perpetual futures price was around $1.30, similar to the spot level. The futures price rose 0.16% from 00:00 UTC on the day and moved between $1.2687 and $1.3122 over the past 24 hours. As the two markets' percentage changes were calculated from different reference points, direct comparison requires caution. Nonetheless, given that trading prices are in close proximity, the current distinct futures premium or discount phenomenon is interpreted as limited.

■ 74% of Accounts Betting on Buys... But Funding Rate Is Negative

Market participants' positions are concentrated on the buy side. Long positions accounted for 74.2% of all futures accounts. Among top trader accounts, the long ratio reached 77.6%, and based on actual position value, longs made up 66.6%.

However, a different trend was observed in the funding rate. The recent funding rate was -0.004%, with the next predicted funding rate at -0.0034%. A negative funding rate means that in the given contract, short positions pay fees to long positions. Even if longs outnumber by account count, a negative funding rate can appear depending on position sizes, hedging trades, and supply-demand differences across contracts.

Open interest also increased only 0.07% in the past hour. The increase is too limited to judge that new positions are flowing in strongly.

■ RSI Neutral Zone, MACD Golden Cross... Upward Dominance Not Confirmed

Technical indicators also showed no clear upward dominance. The spot market's 1-hour relative strength index (RSI-6) stood at 45.55, in the neutral zone. In the short term, it is not heavily tilted toward either overbought or oversold.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) saw a golden cross six candles ago on the 1-hour chart, but the histogram shrank from the previous reading. While a signal suggesting a short-term rebound has appeared, it is difficult to say upward momentum is strengthening.

The moving average alignment was mixed. Notably, the futures market's 1-hour moving average signal showed a bearish alignment, leaving open the possibility that it could act as a burden on short-term price recovery.

The recent daily large-cap (whale) money flow tallied in the spot market also recorded a net outflow. This is a factor urging caution against interpreting that large-scale buying is clearly flowing in.

■ Short-Term Price Level of Interest: Whether $1.30 Can Hold

On the price front, whether $1.30 is recovered and established is cited as a short-term observation point. Around the 24-hour high of $1.3126, it is necessary to check whether further upward attempts continue. Conversely, around $1.27, the possibility of a retest of the recent low can be watched. However, these price levels are merely observation points based on recent trading ranges and do not represent definitive support or resistance lines.

The current Ripple market is at a juncture where a high long position ratio, a negative funding rate, and limited open interest growth are appearing simultaneously. Rather than rating the upside potential highly based solely on the buy-dominant account distribution, it appears necessary to also confirm changes in actual trading prices and money flows. In particular, whether price movements centered on $1.30 lead to a short-term rebound or push back down toward recent lows will depend on further trading flows.

[Virtual assets are high-risk investment products subject to large price volatility and may move contrary to expectations depending on market conditions. Futures position ratios, funding rates, and technical indicators do not guarantee future prices. Investment decisions and responsibilities rest with the investor, and this article is not intended as investment advice. AI assistance was used in the writing of this article.]