Solana (SOL) is on a downward trend ahead of the launch of its major network upgrade, 'Alpenglow.' With the upgrade expected to make transaction finality roughly 85 times faster than before, the market is watching whether Solana can recover past $105 toward $110.

■ Down 1.83% in 24 Hours… Selling Pressure Across the Market

According to crypto media outlet CoinGape, Solana's price fell 1.83% over the past 24 hours to $104.53. Although the Alpenglow launch is scheduled for October 21 (local time), selling pressure continues across the cryptocurrency market. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization fell 1.2% to $2.73 trillion amid concerns over interest rates. Bitcoin traded around $81,000, Ethereum around $2,425, and Ripple (XRP) slipped below $1.30.

■ Transaction Finality Target: 12.8 Seconds → 150 Milliseconds

CoinGape reported that Solana will activate the Alpenglow upgrade on October 21 (local time). The upgrade aims to reduce transaction finality time to approximately 150 milliseconds (0.15 seconds). According to the Solana Foundation, the current network's transaction finality time is about 12.8 seconds. Based on these figures, if Alpenglow achieves its target, transaction finality will be about 85 times faster.

Transaction finality refers to the state in which processed transactions on a blockchain can no longer be reversed. Once a transaction is finalized, users can confirm with greater certainty that the transfer of funds is complete.

■ 'Votor' Protocol to Replace Tower BFT… Wallet Usage Unchanged

According to CoinGape, Alpenglow replaces the existing consensus system, 'Tower BFT,' which validators use to reach consensus on transactions and complete block processing. The newly introduced 'Votor' protocol is designed to allow validators to exchange votes directly and aggregate them into certificates. This enables blocks to reach finality with just one or two rounds of voting.

CoinGape explained that this change could reduce waiting times users experience during payment confirmations. Existing wallet usage will remain the same. According to the Solana Foundation, users can sign and send transactions exactly as before using their current wallets and applications.

However, CoinGape noted that the 150-millisecond target refers to the time it takes for a transaction to reach finality, not the interval at which new blocks are created. Since Alpenglow has not yet been activated on the mainnet, its actual performance remains unverified.

■ "One of the Biggest Upgrades in Solana's History"… DeFi Dev Corp's Assessment

On October 16 (local time), DeFi Dev Corp. stated on social media platform X that Alpenglow is one of the biggest upgrades in Solana's history. The company noted that transaction finality will become roughly 85 times faster, reaching a level comparable to Visa.

■ $12.67 Million Net Outflow from Solana ETFs in a Day

Funds flowed out of Solana spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to SoSoValue data cited by CoinGape, Solana ETFs recorded a daily net outflow of $12.67 million on October 16 (local time). The entire outflow came from Bitwise's BSOL, while the other six listed funds recorded neither net inflows nor net outflows.

On the same day, Solana ETF trading volume totaled $90.03 million, with total net assets standing at $1.62 billion. Cumulative net inflows were tallied at $1.56 billion, and the total assets of Solana ETFs account for 2.64% of Solana's market capitalization.

■ Short-Term Direction Hinges on $105… RSI at 42.24, MACD Line at -0.90

CoinGape analyzed that whether Solana breaks above $105 could be a key benchmark for its short-term price movement. According to the 4-hour chart presented in the report, Solana's price stood at $103.98, down 0.66% in that timeframe. The relative strength index (RSI) recorded 42.24, below the neutral level of 50, with the RSI moving average presented in the article at 42. Meanwhile, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) showed a slight positive change despite the price decline. According to TradingView charts cited by CoinGape, the MACD line was at -0.90, above the signal line of -1.06, and the histogram recorded 0.16.

CoinGape projected that if Solana closes above $105 on the 4-hour chart, the recovery could gain momentum, with the price potentially moving toward $110. It further analyzed that a recovery of $110 could open the possibility of a rise to $115, near a zone where past price reactions occurred. Conversely, $100 was presented as the key support level in the event of a decline. CoinGape forecast that if Solana closes below $100 on the 4-hour chart, it could fall further to $97 and $95, though it noted these downside targets are premised on confirmation of a break below the $100 support level. CoinGape added that if Solana holds the $100 level, the possibility of another recovery attempt remains.

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