Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP continue to show weakness ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. Although prices recently attempted a recovery, the upward momentum has lost steam, deepening market uncertainty.

According to overseas cryptocurrency media outlet Coingape on the 18th (local time), Bitcoin traded above $81,800, while XRP failed to break past $1.30. The broader virtual asset market has been unable to find a clear recovery trend.

Amid this, Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is drawing market attention. Coingape reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could resume within six days if the United States accepts Iran's demands. Under the Iranian proposal, negotiations are set to resume on the seventh day, and U.S. approval is required for the proposal to actually proceed.

The U.S. midterm elections will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (local time). These elections will determine control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress. Voters will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 senators, including seats up for special election. As the elections take place midway through U.S. President Donald Trump's second term, they are expected to serve as a crucial test for major legislative policies. In addition, gubernatorial elections will be held in 36 states, along with state legislature and local government elections in several states. Early voting is available in some states, but voting schedules and deadlines vary by state. Coingape explained that the election results will affect federal government spending, lawmaking, and congressional oversight activities in the United States for the next two years. The new members' terms begin on January 3, 2027 (local time).

Meanwhile, in the Bitcoin and XRP markets, exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows and remarks by Michael Saylor have emerged as major points of interest. The public comment period for the virtual asset regulatory framework proposed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) runs until October 20 (local time), and Coingape reported that claims that the framework would be announced on Monday have yet to be confirmed.

Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy and well known for buying Bitcoin, said on social media on the 18th (local time), "We have found room for more orange." Following the remark, speculation has resurfaced that Strategy may purchase additional Bitcoin. Strategy currently holds 848,250 Bitcoin, though the timing and size of any next purchase have not been disclosed.

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold a meeting from October 27 to 28 (local time), with the interest rate decision to be announced at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on the 28th.

Capital outflows continue in the ETF market. According to data cited by Coingape, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $82.39 million in a single day on October 16 (local time), of which $71.78 million flowed out of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, alone.

XRP ETFs have also not escaped outflows. According to Coingape, XRP ETFs recorded a net outflow of $1.84 million over one week, ending a 13-week streak of net inflows, with only one trading day seeing new capital inflows during that week. In addition, according to SoSoValue data, XRP ETFs saw a daily net outflow of $2.47 million, with total net assets standing at $1.47 billion.

Regarding price outlook, Coingape analyzed that Bitcoin is facing resistance around $82,000. If buying strength increases and the price breaks through that level stably, $82,500 could become the next recovery target. On the other hand, if Bitcoin fails to hold support near $81,000, it could fall to $80,700, with some analyses suggesting it could slide to $80,000 on further declines.

XRP is currently trading sideways around $1.29, with its first support level at $1.27 and upper resistance zone at $1.31 to $1.32. Based on chart analysis, Coingape noted a scenario in which XRP breaks above $1.35, while also analyzing that if the support level collapses, $1.25 could be exposed to downside risk.

[This article is by no means investment advice. The content may merely reflect opinions, so please do not use it as a reference or material for investment. All investments are made by each individual's own judgment, and the final responsibility lies with the investor. This publication assumes no responsibility whatsoever.]