Ripple (XRP) exchange reserves have grown to approximately 11.81 billion coins, drawing market attention. This is a level in the top 1% over the past year, and the impact of the XRP accumulated on exchanges on future prices is being closely watched.

99th Percentile Over the Past Year… Near Historic High

Overseas crypto media outlet CoinGape, citing data from on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, reported that XRP exchange reserves have reached the 99th percentile over the past 365 days. This means that exchange reserves were lower than current levels for about 99% of the past year.

According to CoinGape, an increase in XRP held on exchanges also increases the amount investors can sell. However, with leveraged trading declining, some analysts note that market conditions could improve if spot buying flows return.

Leveraged Positions Actually Being Unwound

CoinGape reported that while XRP exchange reserves surged, an opposing trend emerged in the futures market with leveraged positions declining. Binance's XRP open interest fell about 15.8% compared to the beginning of the month. Over the same period, forced liquidations of long positions spiked, meaning a significant portion of leveraged buy positions was unwound before exchange reserves peaked.

On-chain analyst CryptoOnchain pointed out on X (formerly Twitter) on October 18 (local time) that while XRP continues piling up on exchanges, positions in the derivatives market have already been recalibrated. According to CryptoOnchain's analysis, leveraged positions were unwound faster than the supply accumulated on exchanges. Although leveraged traders were liquidated in the derivatives market, the XRP transferred to exchanges by these and other investors remains there.

Aligned with Rising Whale Deposits

This trend also aligns with the previously observed increase in XRP whale deposits to exchanges. CoinGape previously reported that XRP inflows to Binance from large wallets a few weeks ago reached 1.6 billion coins, the highest in the past six months. Analysts say the recent increase in exchange reserves is not a short-term phenomenon but has continued across multiple periods.

This contrasts with the situation in June (local time), when analysts viewed declining XRP reserves on Binance as reduced selling pressure and a positive signal for price gains. However, the opposite trend is now unfolding, with XRP exchange reserves approaching their highest level in the past year.

Price at $1.28–$1.35, Pressure from Both Macro and Supply-Demand

XRP traded in the $1.28–$1.35 range. CoinGape reported that XRP weakened after the U.S. September (local time) Producer Price Index (PPI) came in at 6.3%, far exceeding market expectations. Combined with selling pressure from increased XRP supply on exchanges, both macroeconomic conditions and on-chain supply-demand are weighing on the price.

However, CoinGape noted that rising exchange reserves do not necessarily lead to large-scale selling. It analyzed that what matters more than current reserve levels is the direction exchange supply takes over the next 5–10 trading days.

Institutional Demand and On-Chain Activity as Supports

Notably, unlike past periods of surging exchange reserves, factors supporting institutional investment demand currently exist. According to CoinGape, Nasdaq-listed XRP treasury management firm Evernorth manages 473 million XRP and began executing its institutional investment strategy from the fourth quarter of 2026 (local time). Evernorth is partnering with Ripple, Kraken, Coinbase, and BitGo. CoinGape explained that Evernorth's XRP management strategy is designed to absorb supply coming to market rather than add sell volume to exchanges.

New developments are also emerging in the XRP Ledger (XRPL) ecosystem. Ripple's approval of the 'Sponsored Fees and Reserves' amendment was presented as a signal that XRP ecosystem development is ongoing. Additionally, the total value locked (TVL) in Doppler's XRP vaults exceeded $125 million. This means demand for XRP aimed at on-chain yield generation is growing, acting as a factor moving XRP off exchanges, contrary to the supply accumulating there.

Spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were also cited as demand-supporting factors. CoinGape reported that cumulative net inflows into spot XRP ETFs stand at approximately $1.8 billion, though it added that daily inflows have slowed somewhat recently.

Net Inflow/Outflow Indicators Over the Next Week as a Key Watch Point

CoinGape analyzed that it is difficult to judge the current XRP market as simply moving in one direction, up or down. With exchange reserves at extremely high levels over the past year, price volatility could expand if that supply translates into actual sell orders. On the other hand, it suggested that with leveraged trading largely unwound, continued institutional investment demand and on-chain activity could partly offset the burden of rising exchange supply.

Accordingly, CoinGape said it will be necessary to watch CryptoQuant's net inflow/outflow indicators for XRP across all exchanges over the coming week. In particular, it analyzed that the short-term risk picture could meaningfully change if exchange reserves steadily decline from current levels while spot ETF inflows remain stable and on-chain activity continues.

Ultimately, whether the approximately 11.81 billion XRP accumulated on exchanges turns into actual selling or is absorbed by institutional and on-chain demand was highlighted as the key variable that will determine the short-term market direction.

[This article is by no means an investment solicitation. The content may merely reflect opinions, so please do not use it as a reference or resource for investment. All investments are made at each individual's own judgment, and the final responsibility lies with the investor. This publication assumes no responsibility whatsoever.]