Ripple (XRP) managed a modest gain amid a downtrend. However, trading volume fell short of usual levels, and large orders continued to see net outflows. While the price is showing movement away from recent lows, there is still limited grounds to judge that the medium-term downtrend has ended.

■ Price: $1.31, up 0.38% from the previous day

On the 20th, Ripple's price stands at $1.31. Based on the daily candle on the 19th, it rose 0.38% from the previous day. However, the 5-day return over the same period is -4.32% and the 20-day return is -12.67%, marking steep declines. A single day of gains is insufficient to recover the prior losses.

■ Volume and supply-demand: Buying fails to back the rebound

The first thing to watch, more than price, is trading volume. The daily volume recorded on the 19th was only 0.50x the weekly average — half the usual level. This differs from situations where prices rise amid active trading. That said, if the figure was tallied before the day's trading ended, caution is needed when comparing it directly with final volume.

Large-order activity also failed to support expanded buying. The net inflow rate for large orders was -9.62%, with outflows dominating. The price increase and large-order flows are moving in opposite directions.

■ Key price levels: $1.26 support vs. $1.32 resistance

Among recent price levels, $1.26 draws attention. Both the 7-day and 30-day lows were recorded near this level. If Ripple, trading at $1.31, falls back to $1.26, the focus will be on whether it can hold its recent low. If trading continues below this price, it will also be worth watching whether the existing downtrend extends.

On the upside, $1.32 is the nearest reference line. The moving average reflecting the average price of the past 7 days sits at this level, only $0.01 above the current price. Whether Ripple can break above its short-term moving average and sustain trading above it is a key observation point.

If it breaks above $1.32, the next price levels to watch are $1.42–$1.43. The weekly high was $1.42, and the 25-day moving average sits at $1.43. Recovering the short-term average price and rising above the 25-day average should be viewed as distinct events.

■ Technical indicators: Traces of decline remain

Technical indicators clearly show traces of the recent decline. The 6-day relative strength index (RSI) stands at 31.72, close to the 30 level typically used to judge oversold conditions. While the RSI has partially recovered from lower levels, the current reading alone is not enough to conclude that buying strength has sufficiently strengthened.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) has remained in a dead cross state for 19 consecutive days. In contrast to the short-term price rise, daily trend indicators still show weakness. This means that even if a short-term rebound occurs, the existing downtrend does not immediately end.

The SuperTrend, which tracks price direction, also maintained its sell signal. Its reference value is $1.47, which is $0.16 above the current trading price. The trend indicated by this indicator also points in a different direction from the recent modest rise.

■ Overall: Buy and sell signals coexist

Looking at the various figures surrounding the current price together, conflicting movements are evident. The recent low of $1.26 is holding for now, and the RSI remains above the oversold threshold. On the other hand, Ripple is below its 7-day moving average, with sell signals persisting in both the MACD and SuperTrend.

A similar contrast appears in supply and demand. While the price rose from the previous day, large orders recorded a net outflow, and trading volume also fell short of recent averages. Whether the price increase is accompanied by broader trading participation requires further confirmation.

In the market on the 20th, the primary points to watch are whether the recent low of $1.26 holds and whether the price breaks above $1.32. If the price recovers its short-term moving average and volume expands, that would add grounds for judging whether the rebound can be sustained. Whether the net outflow in large orders shrinks should also be checked together. Afterward, price movements around $1.42 and $1.43 will become important, but even if these levels are reached, whether the medium-term downtrend has ended should be judged alongside other trend indicators.

Ripple is currently trading between its recent low and short-term moving average. The daily gain has turned positive, but the cumulative decline over 20 days exceeds 12%. As this rise comes without improvement in trading volume or large-order flows, the immediate price recovery and a trend change should be viewed separately.

[This article does not recommend buying or selling any specific cryptocurrency, and investing carries the risk of principal loss. AI assisted in part in the writing of this article.]