As Bitcoin trades around $77,000, the results of the U.S. midterm election vote count have emerged as the biggest variable for the cryptocurrency market. Investors are watching how changes in the congressional balance of power could affect the Trump administration's crypto policies and Bitcoin's price.

■ Senate Vote Count Results Confirmed So Far

According to tallies updated by the Associated Press at 10:12:58 a.m. Korean time on the 4th, Democrats and Democratic-aligned independents hold 41 Senate seats while Republicans have secured 31. These figures include both seats confirmed as won in this election and seats not up for election where incumbent senators retain their terms.

In areas where counting is still underway, Democratic candidates lead in 5 seats and Republican candidates in 3. However, no leading candidate has been confirmed as the winner. The Senate majority threshold is 51 seats, and with some areas still lacking sufficient results, the current secured seats alone cannot determine the majority party. For Democrats to become the Senate majority, they would need to win additional Republican-held seats.

■ Why the Election Results Affect the Crypto Market

Changes in the composition of the U.S. Congress could influence the legislative process for relevant laws. In particular, the future handling of the CLARITY Act, which defines the market structure for cryptocurrencies, is a point of interest. The bill aims to clarify the regulatory framework for digital assets and requires political negotiation and consensus. If the congressional composition changes after the midterms, the bill's review schedule and details could also shift.

However, an increase in Democratic seats alone does not necessarily mean crypto regulation will tighten; actual policy direction will depend on the bill's contents and the outcome of congressional negotiations.

■ Bitcoin Price Near $77,000 Under Bearish Pressure

Bitcoin's price had already faced bearish pressure ahead of the election. According to foreign market data reported on November 4, Bitcoin traded around $77,000 during the midterms, at times slipping into the $76,000 range.

Cited factors weighing on the price include outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a security incident at a major cryptocurrency exchange, and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. political calendar. Institutional investor fund flows are a particularly important indicator. Expanded inflows through spot ETFs could support buying demand, but continued outflows could weigh on price recovery.

■ Market Outlook by Scenario

If Republicans retain majorities in both the Senate and House, the political conditions supporting the Trump administration's crypto policies and legislation could persist, which the market may interpret as the continuation of a favorable policy environment. However, this does not guarantee Bitcoin will rise.

If Democrats win majorities in both chambers, policy negotiations between the administration and Congress could become even more important. The timeline for crypto legislation could change, or existing bills could be reconsidered, though this is only one possible scenario.

If the Senate and House majorities differ, negotiations and compromises on individual bills would become key variables.

■ Many Variables Beyond Politics... Need to Distinguish Short-Term Reactions from Mid-to-Long-Term Trends

While the policy environment may change depending on election results, Bitcoin's price is not determined by political factors alone. The U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, the dollar's value, institutional investor fund flows, and crypto market liquidity also play a role. Recently, price volatility and shifts in investor sentiment have appeared simultaneously, making it necessary to distinguish short-term reactions to the election results from mid-to-long-term trends. There have been past cases of Bitcoin rising after midterm elections, but past returns do not guarantee a rise this time.

As of now, the confirmed Senate results show 41 seats for the Democratic side and 31 for Republicans, with Democratic candidates leading in 5 seats and Republican candidates in 3, but the final balance of power remains undetermined. In the Bitcoin market, the final midterm election results, the direction of crypto-related legislation, and spot ETF fund flows are expected to be key indicators going forward.

[This article was written with some AI assistance, based on the Associated Press's U.S. midterm election tallies and foreign cryptocurrency market reports. Election results and cryptocurrency prices are subject to change, and the scenarios presented in this article do not constitute definitive price forecasts. Investment decisions and responsibility rest with the individual investor.]