With the Democratic Party projected to regain a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections, attention is focusing on the regulatory environment for the virtual asset market, including Ripple (XRP). However, a particular party's victory does not directly translate into a rise or fall in XRP's price. The market's focus is on which direction the new Congress will take in shaping digital asset laws and oversight frameworks.

■ Democratic House Majority Projected... But Only a Media Forecast Based on Vote Counting

According to U.S. midterm election coverage by CNBC and NBC News, the Democratic Party is projected to secure a majority of seats in the House. This is a media outlet's projection of winners reflecting vote counting, not a pre-election opinion poll, and it does not mean that official counting has concluded or that the election results have been certified.

In the Senate, races for seats continue to be contested, centered on battleground states. While there have been reports of strong performances by Democrats in some competitive states and seat pickups, the final majority party in the Senate as a whole must be confirmed separately. The balance of power in the House and Senate could become an important variable in the process of handling digital asset-related legislation going forward.

■ Midterm Elections Are Not a Presidential Election... Congressional Power Moves Regulation

U.S. midterm elections do not elect a new president; they elect members of the federal Congress and other officials. Therefore, even if the majority party in Congress changes, the leadership of the executive branch and financial regulatory agencies is not automatically replaced. However, Congress holds powers over legislation, budget deliberations, and oversight of the executive branch, allowing it to influence the direction of financial market regulation.

This is the point XRP investors should watch. Key issues include under what legal standards digital assets will be classified, what obligations will be imposed on exchanges and custodians, and how the supervisory authority of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will be defined. If relevant regulations become clearer, legal uncertainty for digital asset businesses could decrease. Conversely, if the costs and obligations required for regulatory compliance expand, it could become a burden on the business environment.

■ No Basis to Conclude 'Democratic Control = Bad News for XRP'

In a scenario where the Democratic Party controls both the House and Senate, one could consider the possibility of intensified congressional oversight and checks on the executive branch. However, there is no basis to conclude that expanded Democratic seats would be an unfavorable outcome for XRP. The impact on the market can vary depending on individual lawmakers' policy positions, the composition of finance-related committees, and the content of bills actually introduced.

If a divided structure emerges in which Democrats hold the House and Republicans retain the Senate, the weight of negotiation and coordination between the two chambers increases. As differing policy positions must be reconciled in the digital asset legislative process, the speed of bill passage could be affected. Conversely, if practical bipartisan consultations take place and common regulatory principles are established, institutional uncertainty could decrease regardless of Congress's political makeup. Ultimately, what matters is not only which party secured more seats, but what laws are actually passed and enforced.

■ Ripple-SEC Lawsuit Already Concluded... Must Be Viewed Separately from the Election

The past lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC should also be examined separately from this election. The SEC announced on August 7, 2025, that the Ripple-related civil enforcement case was resolved as both sides withdrew their appeals. However, it explained that the existing final judgment of the district court remains in effect. Therefore, the U.S. midterm election results do not newly determine the conclusion of that lawsuit. Nor is it appropriate to interpret the conclusion of the lawsuit as having resolved all legal issues concerning XRP transactions at once.

■ Ripple (the Company) and XRP (the Asset) Are Different... Whole-Market Variables Also Warrant Attention

Ripple is a company that develops blockchain-based financial technology and services, while XRP is the digital asset used on the XRP Ledger. Holding XRP does not make one a Ripple shareholder. Furthermore, Ripple's business expansion does not necessarily guarantee a rise in XRP's price. It is necessary to verify whether the company's business performance translates into real demand for XRP and what changes occur in actual trading and liquidity.

The movement of the virtual asset market as a whole is also a variable. Price trends of major virtual assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, U.S. interest rates and the dollar's value, and shifts in investors' appetite for risk assets are all factors that could influence XRP's market price. In particular, it is difficult to explain price fluctuations immediately following political events solely by election results. Even if election results and price movements appear at the same time, that does not mean a direct causal relationship between the two events has been confirmed.

■ What to Watch Going Forward

In the XRP market going forward, the final seat distribution in the U.S. Senate, the composition of finance-related committees in the new Congress, and the legislative process for digital asset bills are expected to be key items to observe. Official policy announcements from the SEC and CFTC also warrant attention.

It is clear that the U.S. midterm elections are a political variable that could change the institutional environment of the virtual asset market. However, what impact that change will have on XRP's price must be confirmed through the actual legislative and policy enforcement processes. More important than the number of seats each party holds are the specific content of the rules that will apply to digital assets and whether they will be implemented.

[Regulatory changes and market impacts based on election results are conditional projections, not established facts. Virtual assets, including XRP, are highly volatile and principal losses may occur. This article was written with the assistance of some AI, and investment decisions and responsibilities rest with the investor.]