Investor sentiment toward the global semiconductor sector is shaking once again. With uncertainties emerging from both the United States and China, coupled with credibility issues surrounding the investment structures of major technology companies, supply and demand pressures are mounting despite expectations for earnings improvement.

Beyond the AI Boom: Geopolitical and Credit Risks Emerge

The semiconductor sector had maintained a favorable trend, driven by expanding investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. However, the atmosphere recently reversed as geopolitical issues related to supply chain restructuring and credibility concerns over investment structures among major tech companies surfaced simultaneously.

Equipment companies' share prices fluctuated following news that China is pushing for the domestic production of lithography equipment. Additionally, concerns over credit risks grew after it was revealed that a specific big tech company had provided large-scale investment guarantees to related entities.

This anxiety quickly spread to related stocks. Not only major U.S. semiconductor stocks but also foundry and fabless companies across the board showed weakness. Only some diversified comprehensive semiconductor companies saw limited declines. In the domestic market, memory semiconductor-related stocks showed mixed performances, indicating varying temperatures within the sector.

Chinese Memory Company's IPO Adds to Valuation Controversy

Amid these circumstances, the initial public offering (IPO) of a Chinese memory company has further highlighted valuation controversies. As the company enters the market with a valuation comparable to existing global memory leaders, some believe it could establish itself as a real competitor through future capacity expansion and market share growth. On the other hand, there are simultaneous concerns that the demand concentration in the early stages of listing is excessive.

Varying Sentiment by Investor Type... Focus Shifts to Domestic Memory Earnings

In the domestic market, trading characteristics vary by investor type. Retail investors increased their weighting in the relatively stable financial sector, while foreign investors focused on buying defensive stocks. Institutions broadened their buying scope to include memory semiconductors, large-cap information technology (IT), and bio stocks. On the KOSDAQ, interest was observed in stocks related to biotechnology, robotics, and semiconductor equipment.

In this current phase, market attention is focused on the earnings announcements of South Korea's leading memory companies. Rather than the earnings figures themselves, the key point of interest is whether the mid- to long-term supply contracts and future business directions announced during conference calls will be able to calm market anxieties. With the number of floating shares increasing due to recent overseas listings, attention is also being paid to whether shareholder return policies will be mentioned.

In addition, for the platform sector, reports adjusting target prices upward continue due to data center-related business expansion and the integration of digital asset-related subsidiaries. For the components sector, expectations for earnings improvement are forming, helped by strong sales from major clients.

[Three Key Checkpoints for the Semiconductor Sector Going Forward]

1. Whether the earnings announcements and conference call details of South Korea's leading memory companies can serve as a turning point for overall sector sentiment. 2. Whether the additional IPOs and capacity expansion moves by Chinese memory companies will lead to actual oversupply. 3. Whether credit issues surrounding the investment structures of major technology companies will expand further.

The short-term direction of the semiconductor sector is expected to vary depending on how these variables unfold.

[This article is written for investment reference purposes, and we are not responsible for investment decisions made based on it or the results thereof. This article was partially assisted by AI.]