The New York stock market closed sharply higher, driven by Microsoft's (MS) surprise earnings and a broad rebound in the semiconductor sector. The indexes, which had plunged the previous day due to the shock of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate hold, recovered most of their losses within a single day.

In the New York stock market, which closed on the morning of the 31st Korean time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 613.92 points (1.19%) from the previous session at 52,208.06, and the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 index closed up 121.48 points (1.66%) at 7,437.63. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 679.24 points (2.78%) to close at 25,122.18, breaking a six-session losing streak.

■ Previous Day's Fed Rate Hold Shock... 'Largest Dissenting Votes Since 2016'

The New York stock market was significantly shaken by the Fed's decision to hold interest rates the previous day. On the 29th (local time), at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Fed kept the benchmark rate frozen at 3.50–3.75% for the fifth consecutive time. However, with a 9-to-3 vote, three committee members voted in favor of a hike, resulting in the largest number of dissenting votes since 2016.

New Fed Chair Kevin Wash stated that price stability is the top priority and expressed his intention to refrain from providing forward guidance on the future policy path, stimulating uncertainty in the bond market. As a result, the 30-year Treasury yield soared to the 5.2% level during the session, its highest since 2007, and the Dow index plunged 1,153 points (2.19%) the previous day, recording its largest drop in 15 months. The interest rate swap market currently prices in approximately a 60% probability of a rate hike at the September meeting.

■ MS's Surprise Earnings Lead the Rebound... Azure's Annual Revenue Exceeds $100 Billion

It was MS's earnings that drove the rebound on this day. MS recorded second-quarter revenue of $90.01 billion and earnings per share of $4.74, beating market expectations. In particular, the Azure cloud business showed its fastest growth in four years, pushing annual revenue past the $100 billion mark. Driven by this, MS's stock price surged around 15% on the day, recording its largest single-day gain since 2008.

On the other hand, Meta, which announced its earnings on the same day, fell in the 7% range, showing a contrasting trend. Some analysts suggest that whether cloud and AI investments are translating into actual revenue is acting as a dividing line for investor sentiment.

■ Semiconductor Sector Rebounds Across the Board... Samsung's Warning of 'Memory Supply Shortage' Also Gains Traction

The rebound in the semiconductor sector was also prominent. Lam Research served as the catalyst, surging 18% and recording its largest increase since 1999 after announcing strong earnings and guidance driven by AI demand. Following this impact, Intel and AMD rose 11–13% respectively, Taiwan's TSMC climbed 7%, and the SOXX ETF, which tracks the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, gained 8%.

Additionally, as Samsung Electronics warned that a memory supply shortage could persist until 2028, the memory super-cycle theme was also highlighted, with Micron and SanDisk surging 18% and 26%, respectively.

■ Iran-U.S. Tensions Escalate... Brent Crude Surges Over 7% the Previous Day

Geopolitical risks remain unresolved. When Iran's Revolutionary Guard launched ballistic missiles targeting U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East on the 28th, the United States struck at least 10 locations over two hours on the night of the 29th, including pro-Iran militias in Iraq and military command facilities, missile sites, and drone facilities within Iran.

President Trump signaled a strong response, saying "It's our turn," and Iran also warned of additional retaliation. Influenced by this, Brent crude soared over 7% the previous day, but on this day, it actually fell about 2% to close at around $89 per barrel as Saudi Arabia proposed forming a naval coalition to protect major shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

■ Future Variables: Amazon and Apple Earnings, September FOMC, Middle East Risks

After the market close on this day, earnings reports from Amazon and Apple are scheduled. As seen in the cases of MS and Meta, whether AI investments will lead to actual monetization is expected to be put to the test once again.

The possibility of a rate hike at the September FOMC, further increases in the 30-year Treasury yield, and the potential for additional escalation of military conflict between Iran and the United States are also cited as variables that could impact oil prices and the inflation path.

[※ This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific stock or asset. Market conditions and indicators may fluctuate in real time, so investment decisions must be made at one's own discretion. AI assisted with some of the writing.]