Gold Prices Mixed by Product on July 31… Pure Gold, 18K, and 14K Decline, Platinum Rises

According to domestic gold prices from Geumseseo.com as of July 31, 2026, major precious metal prices showed mixed trends by product. Pure gold, 18K, and 14K gold declined, while platinum rose and silver remained stable.

• Pure Gold (3.75g): Buy price 816,000 won (down 1,000 won from the previous trading day), Sell price 703,000 won (down 2,000 won)
• 18K Gold: Sell price 518,000 won (down 2,000 won)
• 14K Gold: Sell price 402,000 won (down 1,000 won)
• Platinum (3.75g): Buy price 321,000 won (up 3,000 won), Sell price 268,000 won (up 2,000 won)
• Silver (3.75g): Buy price 10,750 won, Sell price 10,250 won (unchanged from the previous trading day)

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Impact of Resumed US-Iran Conflict and Fed Rate Freeze on Gold Prices

The international gold market is simultaneously digesting two variables: the resumption of military conflict between the United States and Iran, and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to freeze its benchmark interest rate.

This is the result of shaken dollar and real interest rate outlooks as the Fed has not provided a clear direction for its future monetary policy.

In response to an Iranian attack on a US military base stationed in Jordan, the US military carried out large-scale airstrikes targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) command facilities and missile and drone bases within Iran. As the roughly six-day lull came to an end, concerns have grown that the US-Iran armed conflict could escalate once again.

However, it is difficult to explain the current movement of gold prices solely through war-driven safe-haven demand. If tensions in the Middle East drive up international oil prices, inflationary pressures will strengthen, increasing the possibility that the Fed will maintain higher interest rates for longer or implement additional rate hikes. While war provides safe-haven buying pressure for gold, it simultaneously acts as a conflicting factor that pressures gold prices through rising interest rates.

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Fed Freezes Benchmark Rate at 3.50–3.75%… 9-to-3 Vote

On the 29th, the Fed maintained its target range for the benchmark interest rate at 3.50–3.75% per annum at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The vote was 9 to 3.

While the rate freeze itself was an expected outcome, the absence of a clear signal regarding the future policy direction led the market to begin recalculating the possibilities of a rate hike and a prolonged freeze.

Gold is a non-yielding asset. When real interest rates rise, the relative attractiveness of government bonds and deposits increases, weakening gold demand. Conversely, if expectations of rising interest rates retreat or the value of the dollar falls, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases.

The rebound in international gold prices following the Fed's freeze, as the dollar weakened and expectations for a September rate hike diminished, aligns with this structure. After recovering the $4,100 per ounce level on the 30th, the spot gold price moved in the $4,090 range on the morning of the 31st.

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Long-Term History of Gold Prices… Monetary Systems and Real Interest Rates Have a Greater Impact Than Wars

The long-term history of gold demonstrates that changes in the monetary system and real interest rates have governed the direction of prices for longer periods than wars have.

After the fixed exchange rate system, which was maintained around the exchange of dollars for gold, was dismantled, gold prices began to be determined by market supply and demand. In the 1970s, as the oil shock, double-digit inflation, and a decline in the dollar's purchasing power overlapped, the price of gold, which had been stuck at around $35 per ounce, surpassed $800 in 1980.

In contrast, during the 1980s, when the US implemented aggressive tightening to curb inflation and real interest rates rose, gold prices entered a long-term bearish trend. As inflation concerns eased and confidence in the dollar was restored, funds shifted to bonds and deposits that offered interest, and gold prices continued a correction trend for approximately 20 years until 2001.

The 2008 global financial crisis changed the role of gold once again. As major central banks lowered interest rates and supplied massive liquidity, investors sought assets to defend against financial system instability and currency devaluation. Gold prices approached $1,900 per ounce in 2011, surpassing the 1980 nominal price peak.

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2026 Gold Market… Decades of Change Compressed into Months

In the 2026 gold market, changes that previously took decades are being compressed into a matter of months. International gold prices surpassed $5,500 per ounce intraday in January before falling below $4,000 by the end of June.

Volatility has expanded as geopolitical tensions, inflation outlooks, the value of the dollar, real interest rates, and exchange-traded fund (ETF) funds change direction in short cycles.

Investment demand has not flowed unilaterally into the gold market either. According to the World Gold Council, gold ETFs experienced an outflow of 45 tons in the second quarter of this year. Rising interest rate and inflation expectations, along with a stronger dollar, acted as a burden.

On the other hand, net gold purchases by central banks in the second quarter amounted to 288.9 tons, a 62% increase compared to the same period last year. While private investors responded sensitively to interest rates and price fluctuations, central banks continued their purchases as part of diversifying foreign exchange reserves and managing currency risk.

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Meaning of the Simultaneous Rise in Stock Market and Gold Prices

The current phenomenon of the stock market and gold prices rising together can be viewed in the same context. The New York Stock Exchange reflects major corporate earnings and a rebound in tech stocks, but the gold market separately prices in uncertainties regarding the dollar's purchasing power, long-term inflation, and policy credibility.

Stock buying represents expectations for corporate profits, while gold buying reflects anxiety about the monetary and financial environment; the two fund flows do not necessarily conflict.

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Review of Future Gold Price Variables

To determine the future direction of gold prices, one must consider not only whether the war will expand but also US employment and inflation indicators, the value of the dollar, and real interest rate movements confirmed through Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS).

If the US-Iran conflict stimulates international oil prices, safe-haven asset demand could increase, but inflation and rate hike pressures could simultaneously rise. Ahead of the September FOMC, which side the Fed weighs more heavily—inflation risks or the possibility of an economic slowdown—will also be a key variable.

Whether central banks continue to purchase gold and whether gold ETF funds return will also be factors determining the price trend.

The 2026 gold market is increasingly becoming a market where the dollar, interest rates, inflation, and confidence in monetary policy collide, rather than a market that merely reflects the fear of war.

[Investment decisions are the responsibility of each individual, and a cautious approach is required as short-term volatility has expanded.]