Meta Platforms, a U.S. big tech company, will announce its third-quarter 2026 earnings early on the 22nd, Korea time. Market forecasts ahead of the announcement paint a mixed picture of rising revenue and declining net profit. Revenue is expected to increase more than 20% compared with the same period last year, but both net profit and earnings per share (EPS) are projected to decline. How much profitability has improved relative to top-line growth has emerged as the biggest point of interest in this earnings report.

Market Forecast: Revenue of $63.34 Billion, EPS of $6.54

According to earnings forecasts released by U.S. financial information company MarketBeat on the 21st, Meta's third-quarter revenue this year is expected to come in at $63.34 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) of $6.54.

In the same period last year, Meta recorded revenue of $51.24 billion and EPS of $7.25. Based on these forecasts, revenue would rise approximately 23.6% while EPS would fall about 9.8%. Revenue is projected to increase by $12.1 billion while EPS is expected to decline by $0.71, showing a divergence between revenue growth and earnings flow.

Net Profit Expected to Drop 17%... 'Profitability Is the Key'

Net profit forecasts point in a similar direction. According to an LSEG tally cited by U.S. investment media outlet Investopedia, Wall Street expects Meta's third-quarter net profit to be about $15.44 billion, down roughly 17% from the same period last year. The notable point in this earnings report is that while revenue growth is expected to exceed 23%, net profit is forecast to record a double-digit decline.

However, since net profit and EPS are affected by various factors including taxes and the number of shares outstanding, the figures alone cannot be taken as definitive evidence that operating profitability has deteriorated to the same degree.

Modest Improvement from Previous Quarter... Earnings Surprises in 7 of the Last 8 Quarters

Comparison with the previous quarter's results is also drawing attention. Meta recorded EPS of $6.18 in its second-quarter 2026 earnings announced on July 29, falling short of the market expectation of $7.19 at the time, as presented by MarketBeat. The projected third-quarter EPS of $6.54 is about 5.8% higher than the previous quarter's actual result. While a decline is expected year-over-year, a modest improvement is forecast compared with the immediately preceding quarter.

Meta's track record of beating market expectations in past earnings reports is also a point of interest. According to MarketBeat, Meta exceeded market forecasts in 7 of the last 8 quarters. However, this history does not guarantee improved results this quarter. Investors' assessments may vary depending on how far actual results exceed or fall short of market forecasts.

Options Market Prices In 6.3% Stock Price Swing

Stock price volatility following the earnings announcement is also drawing attention. Investopedia reported that options market pricing reflects an expected swing of about 6.3% in Meta's stock price, meaning market participants are pricing in the possibility of a significant move around the earnings release. However, the expected swing is not an indicator predicting the direction of either an increase or a decrease.

There are also slight differences between forecasts. Investopedia's third-quarter revenue forecast for Meta is $63.35 billion, differing by $10 million from MarketBeat's $63.34 billion, but both forecasts anticipate revenue exceeding $63.3 billion.

Meeting Market Expectations to Be the Standard of Evaluation

In this earnings report, whether the actual scale of revenue growth and the magnitude of the net profit decline align with market expectations is expected to be the primary evaluation criterion. Even if revenue exceeds forecasts, market judgment on the results could be mixed if the net profit decline widens. Conversely, if revenue growth is maintained while net profit and EPS come in above forecasts, concerns about profitability could be partially eased.

Ultimately, Meta's third-quarter 2026 earnings will serve as an occasion to gauge whether the divergent forecasts of rising revenue and declining profit are actually confirmed. The gap between the market forecasts of $63.34 billion in revenue, $6.54 in EPS, and $15.44 billion in net profit and the actual announced figures is expected to be at the heart of the earnings evaluation.

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