Ethereum Spot ETF Records $93.3 Million Net Outflow in a Single Day

On November 6, the U.S. spot Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) market recorded a net outflow of $93.3 million in a single day. Notably, $90.8 million flowed out of the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) run by BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, accounting for approximately 97.32% of the total net outflow. Even as supply-demand pressures related to institutional investors persist, the spot price of Ethereum actually rose, showing a divergent trend.

Five Consecutive Trading Days of Outflows... Daily Average of $73.04 Million

Over the past five trading days, the cumulative net outflow from U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs reached $365.2 million. Converted to a daily average, this amounts to $73.04 million. Since the outflows did not stop at a single day but continued across multiple trading days, it is worth examining the possibility of weakening short-term ETF investment demand. Overseas data providers useful for tracking U.S. ETF fund flows include Farside Investors and the virtual asset information platform CoinStats.

However, the fact that BlackRock's ETHA accounted for most of the total net outflow does not mean there were no fund movements in other ETFs. Inflows and outflows of individual products can offset each other, so flows must be examined product by product.

Impact of ETF Outflows on the Spot Market

ETF outflows draw attention because of their structural connection to the spot Ethereum market. When new funds flow into spot ETFs, buying demand for the underlying asset, Ethereum, can arise through the creation and redemption process and liquidity providers' trades. Conversely, if net outflows continue, demand through ETFs weakens, and redemption-related trades may put pressure on the spot market.

However, the entire net outflow amount from ETFs does not convert into spot Ethereum selling on the same day. This is because various trading structures come into play, such as liquidity providers' inventory management, derivatives hedging, and transfers of existing holdings. Ultimately, it is difficult to view the relationship between ETF fund flows and Ethereum prices as a one-to-one correspondence.

Spot Price Rebounds to the $2,249 Level... Medium-Term Indicators Remain Weak

In fact, Ethereum's short-term price moved in the opposite direction of the ETF outflows. As of November 7, on the Binance spot market, Ethereum was recorded at $2,249.62, up 0.96% from 24 hours earlier. Despite a substantial amount of funds leaving spot ETFs, the price remained in positive territory. This shows that variables other than ETF fund flows, such as spot exchange trading demand, changes in derivatives positions, and overall market risk appetite, can influence price.

Some improvement signals also appeared in technical indicators. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) formed a golden cross three trading days ago, and the histogram remains in positive territory. Large-order fund flows on a daily basis were also recorded as net inflows. This means buying pressure can appear in spot trading even as funds exit the ETF market. However, net inflows of large orders do not guarantee a sustained upward trend.

It is still too early to conclude that the medium-term downtrend has ended based on a single day of gains. Ethereum's 30-day return was recorded at -12.61%, and on the daily chart, the price remains below the 7-day, 25-day, and 99-day moving averages. Despite the short-term rebound, the medium-term price structure remains weak.

Key Watchpoint: Whether ETHA Outflows Will Shrink

The impact of ETF net outflows on the Ethereum market can be summarized in two ways. First is short-term supply-demand pressure. If outflows continue from U.S.-listed spot ETFs, the buying base through those investment products weakens. If the outflow size grows or spreads to multiple ETFs, it could weigh on the momentum of a market rebound. Second is investor sentiment. If outflows persist from ETFs, one of the channels through which institutional investors gain exposure, market participants may interpret this as a risk-aversion signal. Conversely, if net outflows shrink or turn into net inflows, whether investment demand through ETFs recovers becomes a new point of observation.

It should also be considered that Ethereum's price has fallen more than 12% over the past 30 days. Although ETF outflows and the price correction appeared during the same period, it is difficult to conclude this is a single causal relationship. The market may have already priced in some of the negative supply-demand changes.

Key watchpoints going forward include: whether the outflow centered on BlackRock's ETHA will shrink; whether net outflows will spread to other spot Ethereum ETFs; whether overall ETF market fund flows will turn positive; whether trading volume will increase as the spot price recovers major moving averages; and the liquidity environment for risk assets in general, including the U.S. stock market, the dollar, and Treasury yields.

Currently, the Ethereum market is simultaneously showing weakening fund demand through ETFs and a short-term spot price rebound. While ETF net outflows are a burden in the short term, the fact that prices can rebound due to other supply-demand factors means the two trends need to be interpreted separately. Ultimately, whether the rebound will be sustained depends not on a single day's gains but on whether the reduction in ETF outflows, spot trading volume, and improvements in medium-term technical indicators appear together.

[Some AI assistance was used. This article does not recommend buying or selling any specific asset; investment decisions and responsibilities rest with the investor.]