Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) has continued its downward trend, falling more than 24% over the past month. Although the NFT brand's expansion into physical merchandise and gaming businesses is drawing attention from overseas cryptocurrency media outlets, the token price has failed to show a clear recovery. With risk-averse sentiment in the U.S. cryptocurrency market overlapping with technical weakness, some analysts argue that the brand's growth potential must be distinguished from actual token demand.

-24.80% in a Month... No Clear Recovery

As of November 7, on the Binance spot market, Pudgy Penguins recorded a price of $0.006536, down 1.42% from 24 hours earlier. The day's high was $0.006796 and the low was $0.006500, putting the high-low range at approximately 4.55% from the low. The 7-day return was tallied at -13.12% and the 30-day return at -24.80%. Rather than the daily decline, the cumulative price weakness over the past month stands out more prominently.

CoinMarketCap: "Not an Individual Negative Event, but Market-Wide Risk Aversion"

Overseas cryptocurrency data provider CoinMarketCap, in a market analysis on November 6, attributed Pudgy Penguins' decline to a broader risk-averse trend across the cryptocurrency market rather than any project-specific negative event. CoinMarketCap noted that no clear incidents directly linked to the price drop—such as new hacks, exchange delistings, or large-scale token unlocks—were identified. It also cited a market environment in which selling pressure had spread across major cryptocurrencies and high-volatility altcoins as the main backdrop. However, this analysis was based on CoinMarketCap's AI-driven market analysis and does not mean the cause of the price decline has been definitively determined.

CoinDesk: "Beyond Digital Collectibles, into a Consumer IP Business"

Another point of interest surrounding Pudgy Penguins is the NFT brand's business expansion. U.S. cryptocurrency media outlet CoinDesk analyzed Pudgy Penguins as a case of expanding from a simple digital collectibles project into a consumer-facing intellectual property (IP) business.

A report published by CoinDesk Research, titled 'Pudgy Penguins: A New Blueprint for Tokenized Culture,' explained that Pudgy Penguins is building a business structure that combines physical toys, distribution channels, gaming, NFTs, and the PENGU token.

According to the report, Pudgy Penguins' physical products recorded more than $13 million in retail sales and over 1 million units sold as of 2024. Additionally, the game 'Pudgy Party' was cited as having achieved more than 500,000 downloads within two weeks of its launch.

CoinDeck noted that this business structure represents a strategy to expand the NFT brand into the general consumer market. At the same time, it assessed that whether physical product sales and growing game users translate into sustained token demand depends on business execution performance.

Brand Growth ≠ Token Price Increase

This means that rising brand recognition and an increase in the market price of the PENGU token do not necessarily move in the same direction. Even if the brand increases revenue by selling physical products, that revenue does not automatically accrue to token holders. The token's actual use cases, demand structure, and changes in circulating supply must be examined together.

Shutdown of 'Abstract' Cited as Ecosystem Risk

Recent overseas market analyses have also raised concerns about business execution risks within the Pudgy Penguins ecosystem. In an analysis on October 6, CoinMarketCap addressed the planned shutdown of Abstract, an Ethereum layer-2 network associated with Pudgy Penguins' parent company Igloo Inc., as a factor that could affect ecosystem trust. The analysis pointed to constraints on liquidity and the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, as well as a lack of institutional adoption, as problems. However, this content was raised in the overseas analysis at the time, and the actual operational status and any changes to the schedule since then need to be verified separately.

RSI at 30.31... Technical Indicators Also Show Continued Weakness

Technical indicators also show Pudgy Penguins' weakness continuing. The relative strength index on the daily chart, RSI(6), was recorded at 30.31. Generally, an RSI below 30 is interpreted as an oversold zone, and Pudgy Penguins is near that threshold.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) has maintained a bearish signal since forming a dead cross seven trading days ago. The current price is also below the 7-day, 25-day, and 99-day moving averages, and the Super Trend is also pointing downward.

Trading Volume at 0.22x the 7-Day Average... Net Outflow of Large Orders

Trading volume is also noteworthy. The day's trading volume was tallied at 0.22x the recent 7-day average. As the price falls amid trading participation well below recent averages, subsequent volume changes will be important.

The flow of large-order funds also showed a net outflow on a daily basis. However, a net outflow of large orders alone cannot be taken as definitive evidence that overall investment capital is leaving the market.

Factors Ahead: Support at the $0.006500 Low and Volume Recovery

Regarding the future price movement, it is necessary to watch movements around the day's low of $0.006500 and whether the price recovers the high of $0.006796. Even if the price rebounds, it will be difficult to judge the sustainability of an upward trend unless trading volume increases.

Business Expansion and Price Valuation Move at Different Speeds

The Pudgy Penguins case shows that an NFT brand's business expansion and the cryptocurrency market's price valuation can proceed at different speeds. The expansion into physical products and gaming highlighted by CoinDesk is a factor in evaluating the project's long-term growth potential. In contrast, the recent price decline and technical weakness reveal that short-term market supply and demand remain unstable.

[This article was produced with partial assistance from AI. It does not recommend buying or selling any specific asset, and investment decisions and responsibilities rest with the investor.]